How often the blackjack dealer busts, card by card
Table games
The dealer busts 42.3% of the time with a 6 showing, but only 11.5% with an ace.
- 42.3%a 6 showing
- 21.2%a 10 showing
- 11.5%an ace showing
Why Small Up-Cards Bust
The dealer busts far more often when showing a small card than a large one. As the key figures show, a six leads to a bust nearly four times as often as an ace. This happens because the dealer must hit stiff hands. With a small up-card, the dealer starts low and must draw again to reach the standing threshold. Many second cards push the total past that limit. The table below lists these bust rates for common up-cards. Notice how the chance of busting drops sharply as the up-card value rises. A ten or ace provides a strong starting total, reducing the need for risky draws. This mechanical requirement drives the statistical difference.
| Up-card | Dealer busts |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% |
| 3 | 37.4% |
| 4 | 39.4% |
| 5 | 41.6% |
| 6 | 42.3% |
| 7 | 26.2% |
| 8 | 24.5% |
| 9 | 22.8% |
| 10 | 21.2% |
| A | 11.5% |
The Ace Advantage
An ace is the safest starting card for the dealer. It counts as eleven or one, giving flexibility to reach the standing threshold without exceeding it. As the table above shows, the bust rate with an ace is the lowest among common up-cards. The dealer rarely needs to take a second card that risks busting. If the ace counts as eleven, the hand is already close to standing. If it counts as one, the dealer has room to draw safely. This dual value stabilizes the hand. Players see this stability reflected in the low bust percentage. The dealer’s rigid hitting rules favor high starting totals, making aces and tens more reliable than small cards.
Basic Strategy Implications
Basic strategy uses these bust probabilities to guide player decisions. When the dealer shows a small card, the player stands on stiff hands more often. The dealer’s high bust chance makes it likely they will exceed the standing threshold. Standing preserves the player’s current total, hoping the dealer busts. Against an ace, the player hits more frequently. The dealer’s low bust rate means they will likely reach a competitive total. The player must improve their own hand to beat it. This logic relies on average outcomes over many hands. Short sessions may vary, but the long-term pattern holds. The strategy minimizes losses by aligning player actions with dealer probabilities. If gambling stops being fun, free help is available via support resources.
Questions
Why does the dealer bust more with a six?
The dealer must hit stiff hands. Starting with a six forces a draw that often pushes the total past the limit. Higher up-cards provide a safer starting point.
Is an ace always safer for the dealer?
Yes. An ace allows the dealer to reach the standing threshold with less risk of exceeding it. This flexibility lowers the bust probability compared to small cards.
How does this affect basic strategy?
Players stand more against small up-cards to capitalize on high bust rates. Against aces, players hit more to improve their totals before the dealer stabilizes.
Every figure on this page is computed by code from exact fractions, a complete enumeration of every baccarat deal and a recursive blackjack model, each checked a second way. See the methodology.